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Weekly Market Update 2.18.2025
Futures indicated a bit higher to start the week with ~10% of SPX companies left to report earnings but mid/small caps will continue to report the next few weeks.
Futures indicated a bit higher to start the week with ~10% of SPX companies left to report earnings but mid/small caps will continue to report the next few weeks.
Retail sales on Friday will moderate from prior months strong gains but at mid 3% y/y, the consumer is still the engine of the US economy.
NFP employment report on Friday will be parsed for strength/weakness after the Fed meeting last week stated that economic activity continued to expand at a "solid pace" and labor markets remain "solid".
Full steam ahead with earnings reports in addition to the first Fed meeting of 2025 with investors not expecting any action to be taken on the current Fed Funds level of 4.375% mid-point. The advance report on US GDP arrives on Thursday with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow calculating an expected 3% print for 4Q24 as data from Dec and Jan was strong.
A light week for economic news will be offset by a heavy slate of earnings releases with investors most focused on NFLX, SCHW, TXN, ISRG and AXP and hopeful that last week's positive reception for bank earnings continues this week.
The fundamental environment in the US remains solid and there is a growing enthusiasm about the fiscal policies which the Trump administration will likely enact in 2025. Yet investor expectations are high, and much good news is built into the US equity market with certain sectors and securities at very full valuations.