The war in the Middle East enters its second week with no let up in sight and crude oil feeling the pinch of supply uncertainty as various energy infrastructure has been impacted as has transit of crude and refined products via the Strait of Hormuz. After rising 36% last week, April brent/wti crude is up another 10% this morning with the curve in steep backwardation.
March comes in like a lion with Operation Epic Fury in full swing in Iran and across the Middle East as Iran retaliates against both US and Gulf allies, including two vessels travelling through the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil futures are higher by 8-9% this morning while energy and defense equities are well bid and all eyes and ears stay pinned for future events.
Equity and fixed income markets are closed Monday in observance of President's Day. S&P 500 earnings wrap up this week with ~ 60 companies reporting including CDNS, PANW and ADI in the technology space who will hope to sidestep the AI carnage that has befallen many of their peers. Others providing earnings insight include CEG who will provide power generation timelines to fulfill datacenter demand, DE will update investors on the global agriculture market, while WMT will speak to the K-economy and end consumer demand while NEM will provide an update on the red hot gold market.
Approximately 15% of the SPX reports 4Q25 earnings highlighted by APO, CVS, DDOG, KO, HOOD, MCD, CSCO and ANET. Thus far, 60% of SPX companies have reported with 76% posting an earnings surprise with a y/y blended earnings growth rate of 13%, the 5th straight quarter of double digit earnings growth (Factset).
A busy week of 4Q25 earnings begins with reports from PLTR, NXPI and DIS on Monday. In all, ~115 SPX companies are set to report including AMD, MRK, UBER, LLY, GOOGL and AMZN with investors parsing reports carefully as single stock volatility remains elevated.