Financial markets are surprisingly settled after weekend news of the US bombing of three Iranian nuclear facilities with both Asian and European equity markets showing only small declines while US yields are slightly lower. Crude oil markets are currently flattish after having jumped 2%.
Markets appear to be rebounding this morning after a dip lower on Friday following Israel/Iran tensions that spooked the market. US and Saudi are calling for calm and de-escalation, remains to be seen how events will play out.
Based on initial unemployment claims which have been flatlining, there is little to suggest employment remains at risk at this point in time. JOLTS, ADP and Non-Farm payrolls on Tues/Wed/Fri are all expected to show some moderation vs. April figures but still firmly in expansionary territory.
Trump comments last week suggested talks were going nowhere, sending the market lower on thin pre-holiday weekend trading. NVDA earnings are Wed and will likely set the tone for the tech sector and market in general. Investors are expecting a messy print as $5B of inventory that was to be sold to China will be written off after new restrictions were implemented.
Moody's US credit downgrade may turn out to be the big news of the week, although Treasury Secretary Bessent calling it a "lagged" indicator. 20-year bond auction on Wednesday will be closely watched for any impact of reduced demand/higher yields.